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An automated strategy to preserve your wealth. Whatever happens.
Smart Balanced Hedging is software that runs a strategy on the crypto-asset markets in the account you open in your own name: you choose the amount and switch it off whenever you want. You use it as you wish and see every trade.
What are you investing in?
Where the return comes from, in three steps.
Exposure is taken to the underlying crypto-asset in the market that pays the most attractive financing premium at the moment.
An offsetting derivative neutralises the price movement. If the price rises it compensates; if it falls it compensates. The direction stops mattering.
The system readjusts hedge and margins continuously. This is what turns a known idea into a stable result: 46 negative days in 1,033.
What is left after the hedge is the premium. Small each day (average daily gain +0.03%), which is why the result accumulates in a straight line instead of a saw-tooth.
It is not latency arbitrage. It does not use outsized leverage. It does not speculate on the price of bitcoin. And it does not touch your money: we license the strategy as an API on your own account.
Where we start
Idle liquidity is not standing still: it is losing value.
With euro-area inflation at 3.3% and Spanish inflation at 4.3% in August 2026, any position that pays less than that destroys purchasing power every month. It is a silent loss that appears on no statement.
Sources: Eurostat (flash estimate, 2 September 2026) and INE (August 2026 CPI, final data).
Investors have two sides: the wish to gain as much as possible, and the need not to lose.
Products built to win big can deliver, but they ask you to endure large swings and they take a heavy share of the gains. The other side of a portfolio is made of steady, low-return holdings: bonds, deposits, fixed income. There nobody minds a fee, because what you receive is not a return: it is security. In uncertain times, protection comes first.
Smart Balanced Hedging, our strategy, was designed for that side of a portfolio. What we show matters more than what we say.
Live simulation with real market data, not a backtest. December 2023 to September 2026, from the statistical report to 1 October 2026.
How to read the numbers
Anyone can show a return. An experienced investor looks at the price paid for it.
These are the four numbers that separate a good strategy from an exceptional one, and what they say about Estay in the simulation, with data from the fourth quarter of 2023 to 1 October 2026. Ratios are multiples; return, volatility and drawdown are annual percentages.
Two products earn 10% a year: one swings 15%, the other 1%. They earn the same, but only one lets you sleep. A rule of thumb: 0.5–1.5 is good for a conservative fund; above 3 is exceptional.
Nobody minds if their portfolio rises sharply. Sortino ignores the upside movement and measures only what hurts. A rule of thumb: above 2 is considered notable.
A fund that earns 12% a year and once fell 12% has a Calmar of 1: one bad quarter wipes out the year. A rule of thumb: equity funds 0.3–0.7; a good alternative manager 1–3.
Unlike Calmar it is not annualised: it measures the whole series. Not days, but multiples. A rule of thumb: above 5 is considered very solid.
A 12% annual return is found in many places. A 12% annual return with 0.31% volatility is the exercise we ask you to do: compare it with what you hold today.
Live simulation with real market data, not a backtest. 3 December 2023 to 1 October 2026 (1,033 trading days, 34 months), in USD. Simulated results do not guarantee future results.
Performance to date
Live simulation, day by day, with real market data.
Period covered: 3 December 2023 (fourth quarter of 2023) to 1 October 2026, 1,033 trading days over 34 months. Annualised figures are calculated over this period. Simulated results do not guarantee future results.
Every month, positive
Estay: live simulation with real market data. Other options: indicative figures from public market data, month-end basis, USD. Not a recommendation.
A month in context
It was a very tough month in the markets. From 1 October to 4 November 2026 the bitcoin price fell about 6%. Our strategy ended the period slightly higher and, as the chart shows, with hardly any volatility compared with bitcoin.
Cumulative change since 1 October 2026. Live simulation with real market data, not a backtest. BTC spot is shown for reference only: the strategy does not speculate on the price of bitcoin. Simulated results do not guarantee future results.
Distribution of days
987 days closed positive and 46 negative, in 1,033. Average gain +0.03%, average loss −0.01%, no more than 2 consecutive negative days, and a longest positive run of 91 days. The tail is on the side of the gains (skewness 1.62) and the 99% value at risk is −0.02%.
Maximum drawdown against the alternatives
How far each option has fallen from its peak. The shorter the bar, the less you have been through.
Against the most conservative options in the market
| Product | Annual return | Volatility | Adjusted max. drawdown | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estay Smart Balanced Hedging | 11.76% | 0.31% | −0.09% | 24.80 |
| Average Spanish bank deposit | 2.29% | — | 0.00% | — |
| German 10-year Bund | 2.73% | — | −24.80% | — |
| S&P 500 · historical average | ≈ 10% | ≈ 17% | −35.20% | — |
| Bitcoin · from highs of ~$126,000 | — | ≈ 50% | −52.40% | — |
Estay figures: live simulation with real market data, not a backtest, to 1 October 2026. Figures for the other options are indicative, from public sources and cover different periods; maximum drawdowns are adjusted to September 2026. Past returns do not guarantee future returns.
Maximum drawdown (−0.09%) is shown as an upper bound, not a firm figure, until the daily series is verified. Live simulation with real market data, not a backtest. 3 December 2023 to 1 October 2026 (1,033 trading days, 34 months), in USD. Simulated results do not guarantee future results.
Getting started
Start the API with the amount you want and increase it whenever you want.
Binance, LTP or your trusted asset manager opens the account in your name and completes the KYC. Days, not weeks.
You transfer to your own account the amount you want.
Our strategy is linked with trading permissions, never withdrawal. And the strategy starts.
Increase the amount in your account whenever you like, and switch it off whenever you want. No upper limit.
Switch it off whenever you wish, without penalty and without notice: the API closes the positions, converts to USDT and stops operating. The account is yours.
The structure
You are the only person who handles your money, always.
You open the account in your own name. You are the only one who can deposit and withdraw. You control 100% of the capital at all times.
Binance futures, or LTP, a prime broker, for those who want its extra layer of security. Either one handles the onboarding and the KYC and provides the infrastructure for execution. With LTP, you can also ask your own asset manager to open the account for you.
We license the software with trading permission only. No withdrawal permission. No custody. No access to your funds, deposits or withdrawals.
In practice, the custody risk of an asset manager is removed from the equation. If we ceased to exist tomorrow, your money would still be in your account, intact and available.
LTP, the prime broker option: licensed and regulated entities
The following licensed and registered entities are wholly or majority-owned subsidiaries or affiliated companies of LTP.
Licensed corporation regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) for Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) and Type 9 (asset management) activities. CE No. BVE925.
Licensed by the BVI Financial Services Commission as a virtual asset service provider and virtual asset custodian, and to conduct investment business (dealing in investments). Certificates VASP/25/012 and SIBA/L/25/1178.
Licensed by the BVI Financial Services Commission to provide investment management services and to act as Investment Manager of Liquidity Investment SPC. Licence IBR/AIM/23/0966.
Licensed and regulated by the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) as a virtual asset service provider. Ref. VL/26/04/003.
Holds a Trust and Company Service Provider licence under the Hong Kong Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Ordinance (Cap. 615). Licence TC009224.
Five group entities, licensed or regulated in Hong Kong, the British Virgin Islands and the United Arab Emirates. LTP was named Prime Broker of the Year: Global at the Hedgeweek Global Digital Assets Awards 2026. More than a trillion dollars in annual volume, AICPA SOC certification and an institutional client base. liquiditytech.com/en →
Automated execution
Execution, not custody.
The strategy is a portfolio of designs, each built for a different market pattern, combined with adaptive machine-learning models. Their parameters are searched for robustness rather than for the single best past result, and unstable neighbourhoods are penalised.
Before going into production each design passes two validations: one that attributes its profit to the pattern it is meant to exploit, and one that tests it on random samples. Allocation between designs uses denoised correlation matrices and Hierarchical Risk Parity.
The software sends orders to your account through the API, with trading permission only. You see every trade and you can stop the strategy at any moment by revoking the key.
Pricing
You pay for the software, not for managing your money.
Estay licenses the software you connect to your own account. You pay a monthly software subscription for that licence, set according to the size of the account.
You are not choosing Estay only for returns. You are choosing software designed around preserving capital.
We will explain the rest when we speak. Tell us what you have in mind and we will go through it together.
Built for funds that serve clients.
Hedge funds, family offices and other institutions can license Smart Balanced Hedging and offer it to their clients under their own brand (white label), as a powerful diversification tool. The fund connects the API to an account in its own name, and its clients join through the fund, with no need to open an account of their own. You start by testing it with the amount you choose. The software never holds money and can be disconnected at any time. Each fund handles its own regulatory framework. Ask us for the methodology and a technical call with the team.
Important information
This site is for information only and does not constitute financial advice, an offer or a recommendation to invest. Estay licenses execution software; it does not hold client funds, has no access to deposits or withdrawals, and does not provide investment advice or portfolio management. The client uses the software at their own discretion and can disconnect it at any time.
The returns and metrics shown come from a live simulation of the Smart Balanced Hedging strategy over 1,033 trading days with real market data, according to the HS statistical report. They are not the result of audited accounts: there are none yet, and we say so before anyone asks. Past and simulated results do not guarantee future results. Investing in digital assets involves risk, including the possible loss of the invested capital.
Third-party data come from Eurostat and INE (inflation).
Read the full legal notice and the privacy policy.
